Publication

The predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast systems is crucial for accurate seasonal predictions. In this study, we evaluated the prediction of SST in the Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5) hindcast, particularly focusing on the western North Pacific (WNP), where the SST can modify atmospheric convection and the East Asian weather. GloSea5 has a cold SST bias in the WNP that grows over at least 7 months. The bias originates from the surface net heat flux. At the beginning of model integration, the ocean receives excessive heat from the atmosphere because of the predominant positive bias in the downward shortwave radiation (SW), which rapidly decreased within a few days as cloud cover builds. Then, the negative bias in the latent heat (LH) flux increases over time and induces a negative bias in the surface net heat flux. Although the magnitude of the negative bias in LH flux gradually decreases, it remains the most significant contributor to the negative bias in the net heat flux bias for more than 250 days. Uncoupled ocean model experiments showed that the ocean model is unlikely to be the primary source of the SST bias.

The Southern Ocean, an important region for the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), features strong surface currents due to substantial mesoscale meanders and eddies. These features interact with the wind and modify the momentum transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean. Although such interactions are known to reduce momentum transfer, their impact on air-sea carbon exchange remains unclear. Using a 1/20° physical-biogeochemical coupled ocean model, we examined the impact of the current-wind interaction on the surface carbon concentration and the air-sea carbon exchange in the Southern Ocean. The current-wind interaction decreased winter partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) at the ocean surface mainly south of the northern subantarctic front. It also reduced pCO2 in summer, indicating enhanced uptake, but not to the same extent as the winter loss. Consequently, the net outgassing of CO2 was found to be reduced by approximately 17% when including current-wind interaction. These changes stem from the combined effect of vertical mixing and Ekman divergence. A budget analysis of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) revealed that a weakening of vertical mixing by current-wind interaction reduces the carbon supply from below, and particularly so in winter. The weaker wind stress additionally lowers the subsurface DIC concentration in summer, which can affect the vertical diffusive flux of carbon in winter. Our study suggests that ignoring current-wind interactions in the Southern Ocean can overestimate winter CO2 outgassing.